13 minutes Resident tipster, Stephen Welch, has picked out one selection from each of the nine races set to feature on ITV’s racing coverage.
There is an absolutely stacked afternoon of racing to look forward to on Saturday with seven cards across the UK and Ireland including day two of the Irish Derby Festival at the Curragh and Premier Raceday meetings at both York and Newcastle (AW). ITV Racing is set to broadcast no fewer than nine live races and these races are the focus of today’s horse racing tips. Resident tipster, Stephen Welch, has picked out one selection from each of the nine races set to feature on ITV’s racing coverage.
1:40 Newcastle (AW)
JenningsBet 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap
DRAMA - 8/1
The feature sprint at Newcastle is a cracking Class 2 handicap over the straight six and DRAMA makes plenty of appeal as a lightly raced contender with further progress in the locker on this surface. His all-weather record stacks up impressively and he was particularly eye-catching when taking a competitive Kempton handicap last month. That day he posted the fastest sectionals for the final three furlongs, suggesting a 7lbs rise may not be enough to anchor him just yet. Connections are clearly keen to strike while the iron is hot and with this stiffer finish expected to play to his strengths, he holds strong claims of following up.
Durham Castle and Aramram head the market, and both arrive in good order. The former made all in a weaker Windsor event 12 days ago, but needs to take another step forward here. Aramram, meanwhile, did well to finish sixth in the Wokingham having missed the break and his solid AW form, including a win at Newbury, gives him a major shout. Others with place prospects include Fivethousandtoone, who is well treated on his best C&D efforts and Arctic Thunder, who showed promise when runner-up at Haydock and could relish this test. But at the prices, Drama is taken to land the spoils and continue his upward curve on the all-weather.
1:55 York
Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Mile Handicap
ARCHIVIST - 5/6
York’s Saturday card kicks off with a competitive mile handicap, but it may pay to side with the upwardly mobile ARCHIVIST, who could be very well treated off an opening mark of 90. Now with William Haggas after two promising runs for Sir Michael Stoute as a juvenile, the son of Dubawi shaped well on reappearance when denied a clear run at Nottingham before bolting up in a Leicester maiden last time. That effort oozed class and he now enters handicaps for the first time with scope for much better to come. Tom Marquand takes the ride and with a favourable draw and an uncomplicated run style, he looks primed to justify favouritism.
Of the dangers, Cadarn is a worthy opponent having landed back-to-back wins at Redcar and looks to be progressing steadily for George Boughey. With William Buick booked, he’ll have supporters. Shamrock Bay also deserves a mention after a solid runner-up finish on handicap debut at Chelmsford. He’s unexposed and clearly on the up. Elsewhere, Nordic Norm, now gelded, makes his turf and handicap debut after racing in decent novice company on the AW, he’s not without a chance if taking to conditions. If Archivist improves again as expected, he could take this en route to deeper waters later this summer.
2:10 Newcastle (AW)
JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes (Group 3)
KIND OF BLUE - 13/8
The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes could revolve around the classy KIND OF BLUE, who brings genuine Group 1 credentials to the table. James Fanshawe’s four-year-old was last seen trailing home last in France, but that was a messy reappearance where he completely blew the start. He's much better judged on last season’s exploits, where he finished second in the Sprint Cup and then landed the British Champions Sprint in style at Ascot. A proven Group 1 sprinter on turf, he’s also unbeaten in his sole start on the all-weather and sets a clear standard on form. Conceding weight all round won’t be easy, but this stiff six should suit ideally and he can get back on track.
Of the opposition, Ferrous is the most intriguing. He’s won five of his seven AW starts and arrives here on a steep upward curve after a convincing C&D success in May. This is his toughest test to date, but his attitude and progress make him a worthy opponent at this level.
Spycatcher rarely runs a bad race and has gone close in this event before. He’s been running with credit in Group company and will be happier back on Tapeta. Alyanaabi is an unknown quantity at this trip but has raw ability and tries blinkers for the first time, which may unlock more. However, this looks an ideal opportunity for Kind Of Blue to reaffirm his status as one of the top sprinters in the country, and he’s taken to give weight and a beating.
2:25 York
Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes (Group 3)
PABORUS - 3/1
The Criterion Stakes makes its first appearance at York after years at Newmarket and this Group 3 contest over 7f has drawn a fascinating mix of battle-hardened Group performers and rising stars. The most exciting of them may well be PABORUS, who looks ready to make the leap into pattern company. Now running in the silks of Wathnan Racing, this son of Profitable looked a colt going places when coasting home in a high-class conditions race at Thirsk in April. That performance clocked a strong time and confirmed the promise he showed when ending last season with a Listed win. With more to come and a stiff 7f likely to suit ideally, he can justify his place in this company.
Group 1-placed Lake Forest sets the standard on form. He was a creditable fifth in the Queen Anne just 11 days ago and this drop in both trip and grade looks a smart move by connections. If that tough Ascot race hasn’t left a mark, he’s an obvious danger. Formal is another on the up. She bounced back to form when scoring stylishly at Epsom and the second from that race has already franked the form. With Oisin Murphy booked, she deserves plenty of respect.
Each-way players might look to Lethal Levi, a reliable performer with Group 2 form this term, or Nostrum, who has talent but must prove he retains it after wind surgery and a nine-month absence. Still on the upgrade, Paborus is taken to strike at the first attempt in Group company and continue his steady climb through the ranks.
2:40 Newcastle (AW)
JenningsBet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap (Northumberland Plate Consolation Race) (GBBPlus)
GODSEND - 9/2
A fiercely contested consolation for the Plate, where unexposed stayers and all-weather specialists clash over the extended two miles. At the top of the shortlist is GODSEND, who has done little wrong in a burgeoning career and could well take this step up in class in his stride. Sir Mark Prescott’s four-year-old arrives seeking a fifth straight win, having barely come off the bridle when making all on his seasonal return at Nottingham. That was a small-field affair, but the manner of victory suggested there’s more to come. While this is a deeper race and his all-weather credentials are unproven, the switch to Tapeta shouldn't be an issue for a horse with his tactical speed and stamina, especially under a canny Luke Morris ride.
Contacto shaped well on reappearance and looks ready for this longer trip on pedigree. He’s still open to improvement and rates a big threat. Tryfan got back on track with a Salisbury win and returns to a course where he showed ability in the past, while Savrola, who’s 5lbs ahead of the handicapper, looks a real dark horse if he stays the new trip. Plenty of others can be considered in an open heat, with Caprelo, Hardy Bloke and Humble Spark all expected to give solid accounts. But if Godsend continues on his upward curve, he might just outstay them all from the front once again.
3:00 York
Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap
HABOOBA - 7/2
A typically red-hot renewal of York’s five-furlong Dash and the vote goes to the thriving HABOOBA, who returns to the Knavesmire on the back of a commanding C&D win last month. That form has already received a major boost, with both the second and third winning next time out, including Jm Jungle, who landed the Epsom Dash and now reopposes. Tom Marquand maintains the partnership with Habooba, who has been a revelation since reverting to sprinting. A 6lbs rise looks manageable given her manner of victory last time and she’s tactically versatile, which will be crucial in a race stacked with early pace.
Jm Jungle has been knocking on the door all season and finally got his head back in front at Epsom. He’s edging up the weights but remains a big player, especially with his excellent course record. Azure Angel is unexposed at this trip and looked to relish the sharper test when scoring readily at Redcar last weekend. She’s turned out quickly under a penalty and must be respected. Regal Envoy, chasing a hat-trick, is another on the shortlist. He’s a strong front-runner with Windsor form that’s working out nicely, though he’ll face pressure for the lead here. Others to consider include the rejuvenated Squealer, who went close at Doncaster and remains well-handicapped and Venture Capital, who could bounce back after a wind op. But with form lines stacking up and a strong win under her belt over this course and distance, Habooba looks the one to be on in a fierce renewal.
3:15 Newcastle (AW)
JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
TRIBAL STAR - 8/1
One of the most prestigious staying handicaps on the calendar, the Northumberland Plate, or ‘Pitmen’s Derby’, rarely fails to deliver and this year’s renewal is no exception. A full field lines up for the £150,000 prize, but TRIBAL STAR could be the one to emerge from the pack. Unlucky not to land the AW Marathon Final over this C&D on Good Friday, Adrian McGuinness’s lightly raced four-year-old was slowly away that day and then found his run blocked at a crucial stage, yet still flew home to be a narrow second. That form has worked out well, and while he failed to shine on turf last time, a return to Newcastle and a strong gallop over 2m should see him back to his best. Still relatively unexposed at the trip and with a better break, he looks ready to pounce.
Pappano is a fascinating contender on his first Flat start for Willie Mullins. He showed promise when trained by the Gosdens and has reportedly been working well since switching codes. With Jamie Spencer booked, market support could be telling.
Defending champion Onesmoothoperator deserves respect, particularly with his excellent record at the track, but a 12lbs higher mark makes life significantly tougher. Who’s Glen continues to shape like a big race is within reach but has landed a wide draw, while Golden Rules and Zanndabad are others capable of making late headway in what promises to be a stamina test. With strong course form, a progressive profile and plenty of upside, Tribal Star gets the nod to land the Plate at a cracking each-way price.
3:30 Curragh
Paddy Power Pretty Polly Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares)
WHIRL - 15/8
ITV’s sole visit to Ireland on Saturday comes for the day’s feature, the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes and it looks set to produce a high-class clash between generations. With conditions looking ideal, WHIRL can confirm herself as the leading Irish middle-distance filly of her generation. Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old comes here on the back of a gallant second in the Oaks at Epsom, where she set strong fractions from the front and was only collared late by stablemate Minnie Hauk. That effort marked her out as top-class and the stiff Curragh finish over 1m2f could prove optimal. She’s already a Group 3 winner over course and distance and with Ryan Moore booked again, she’s likely to take some catching.
Kalpana is the obvious danger. She didn’t get the clearest of runs when third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last month and that Group 1 form against males reads very strongly. She might just prefer a bit further, but with Colin Keane in the saddle and a strong turn of foot, she’ll be finishing powerfully. French raider Survie brings real depth, having finished second in the Prix de Diane and contested both the Vermeille and the Arc last season. She was a solid second on reappearance behind a proven Group 1 performer and adds an international edge to the field.
Wemightakedlongway drops back from the Oaks trip and has solid juvenile and early-season form, while Higher Leaves and Magical Hope have Group-winning back form but may find this a touch deep. A race of real substance, but Whirl brings Classic form, course experience and a front-running style that could prove hard to peg back.
3:45 Newcastle (AW)
RARE CHANGE - 10/3
The ITV cameras sign off with a quality 7f handicap at Newcastle. RARE CHANGE looks the one to beat as he bids for a hat-trick in what's been a breakthrough campaign. Trained by Tim Easterby, Rare Change has improved rapidly since wind surgery and a gelding operation, winning three of his last four. He was dominant at Pontefract just six days ago and turns out quickly under a 6lbs penalty, which may not be enough to halt his momentum. He’s already proven at this trip and ran respectably on Tapeta last year, so returning to an artificial surface shouldn’t pose too many problems.
Of the older brigade, Eldrickjones continues to knock on the door in similar events, including a narrow defeat over C&D last month, while City Walk is another with solid course form and a capable turn of foot on his day. Native Warrior is one of the more interesting runners from a handicapping angle. Lightly raced and wearing first-time blinkers, he boasts strong novice form from earlier in his career, most notably when second to future Group 1 winner Notable Speech and could spring a surprise if recapturing that spark. With momentum, fitness and a handy racing style on his side, Rare Change is taken to land this and round off the televised action in style.
