13 minutes Check out Friday's Royal Ascot tips from resident tipster Stephen Welch
Friday proved to be a mixed bag for bookies and bettors alike. Whilst the well-fancied duo Ethical Diamond and Amiloc landed the spoils in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes and King Edward VII Stakes respectively, there were some big priced winners on Day Four of Royal Ascot. Cercene pulled off a shock in the day’s feature race, becoming the biggest priced winner of the Coronation Stakes with a 33/1 SP. Elsewhere the likes of Signora, Shadow Of Light and Miss Nightfall all failed to justify strong market support.
We now move onto the fifth and final day of the meeting and Day Five of Royal Ascot offers plenty of interest with 28 runners confirmed for the Wokingham Stakes and three Group races throughout the afternoon including the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes as well as the Hardwicke Stakes and Jersey Stakes. For the last time this week, below you’ll find my Royal Ascot betting tips.
14:30
Charlie Appleby’s Treanmor heads the market after making a sparkling debut at Newmarket, quickening clear to win by four lengths and marking himself out as a colt of serious promise. A €2m Frankel yearling, he’s bred for this sort of test and should relish the extra furlong.
However, the Godolphin trainer has endured a frustrating week with no winners so far and the contrast with the Ballydoyle–Ryan Moore axis couldn’t be starker. MOMENTS OF JOY represents that red-hot partnership and she shaped like a classy filly when scoring on debut at Leopardstown, a race that echoes past Chesham winners for the yard. Improvement is likely.
Humidity adds further intrigue. A full brother to Holloway Boy, who won this race in 2022, he did well to win an 18-runner Newbury maiden and looks the type to improve plenty for the extra distance. Venetian Lace also brings winning form and a 5lbs allowance, while Thesecretadversary shaped with promise behind a Ballydoyle hotpot in Ireland and could go forward again.
Verdict: Appleby’s Treanmor looked the real deal at Newmarket but carries a short price in a race where Ballydoyle’s record can’t be ignored. With Ryan Moore in the saddle and a big run likely on pedigree and debut form, MOMENTS OF JOY is narrowly preferred. Humidity is another strong contender and could easily outrun his odds in what looks a deep renewal.
15:05
A deep renewal of the Hardwicke sees global Group 1 winner REBEL’S ROMANCE head the betting. Charlie Appleby’s versatile star won four times over this trip on international duty last year and got the better of Epic Poet in the 1m6f Yorkshire Cup last month, despite carrying a penalty. Now back at his optimum trip and off level weights, he holds strong claims, but the form of the Appleby yard is a growing concern, with the Godolphin trainer still seeking his first winner of the week.
The same question mark applies to Al Aasy, who is another classy sort with a patchy profile but raw talent in abundance. A winner of seven Group 3s, he didn’t get the run of the race last time at Newbury but has attracted support and could go well if things fall right.
Al Riffa brings Group 1 class, including an Eclipse runner-up effort and is fitted with blinkers for the first time. If they spark improvement, he could be a major player in a slightly easier grade than he's used to.
Goffs sale topper Ghostwriter is another to note. He boasts excellent Group 1 form and steps up to 1m4f for the first time, which may unlock further progress. There’s stamina in the pedigree and he could go close if staying.
Verdict: REBEL’S ROMANCE is the one to beat on form and past achievements, but punters should tread carefully given the Appleby stable’s underwhelming week. Ghostwriter makes plenty of appeal stepping up in trip, while market support for Al Aasy adds intrigue. Al Riffa also enters calculations if blinkers bring him back to his best.
15:40
Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)
The only Group 1 on the final day delivers a global sprinting showcase, with high-class contenders from Japan, France and Australia lining up alongside some of Europe’s leading older sprinters. Among them is INISHERIN, who looks primed to strike again over his ideal C&D. Kevin Ryan’s colt was a dominant winner of the Commonwealth Cup at this meeting last year and returned with a gutsy win in the Duke of York, narrowly holding off the fast-finishing Flora Of Bermuda. With that reappearance under his belt, he sets a strong standard.
French raider Lazzat adds intrigue. The Prix Maurice de Gheest winner is unbeaten at 6f and looked back to his brilliant best when winning on return at Chantilly. He’s the likely pace angle and could take some pegging back if allowed to dictate.
Japan’s Satono Reve brings heavyweight form lines, finishing second to world number one Ka Ying Rising in Hong Kong. A strong traveller with a potent turn of foot, he commands serious respect, especially on a stiff straight track.
Aidan O’Brien’s Storm Boy disappointed on his stable debut but is reportedly better than he showed. With Ryan Moore booked and the stable flying, a bounce back would not surprise.
Verdict: INISHERIN gets the nod with proven C&D form and fitness on his side. He looks ready to land another major sprint title. Satono Reve and Lazzat are massive dangers, while Flora Of Bermuda and Storm Boy are others to note in a fascinating international renewal.
16:20
A wide-open renewal of the Jersey Stakes and the sort of race that often throws up a shock, with several unexposed or improving types lurking at bigger odds. The market is headed by Remmooz, who arrives unbeaten and visually impressive in a pair of novice wins at Doncaster. He could be anything, but this is a serious step up in class.
There’s strong support too for COMANCHE BRAVE, whose dam won this race in 2012. He brings solid Irish form, including a fine second in a Leopardstown Group 3 and a respectable fifth in the Irish 2000 Guineas. He’s proven at the trip, ground should suit and Ryan Moore takes the ride.
Marvelman looks progressive and has been well backed after finishing runner-up in a good Listed race at Newmarket. He shouldn’t be far away.
But this could be the race for a big-price winner. One Smack Mac has been knocking on the door in Listed company and could sneak into the frame, while Spy Chief is improving fast and could easily be underestimated coming off a dominant novice win.
Verdict: COMANCHE BRAVE ticks a lot of boxes and looks ready to strike, but this is a race that could reward each-way players. One Smack Mac has been running well in deeper races than most give credit for and Spy Chief looks like a dark horse with more to offer. A shock might be on the cards.
17:00
Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
A fiercely competitive cavalry in one of the week’s highlights for many race fans, the Wokingham Stakes often rewards those willing to dig deeper than the obvious names. With 28 runners declared and trends favouring experienced handicappers who can handle the hustle of a full-field sprint, this year’s renewal promises to be no exception.
More Thunder heads the market following two smart victories at Newmarket and arrives with a progressive profile for a yard that knows how to win this race. But while he’s entitled to go well under a 6lbs rise, this is a very different test and he won’t find it easy navigating a wall of horses down the Ascot straight.
Course specialists always warrant respect and ORAZIO fits the bill. He was third in this race last year off a similar mark and has the kind of late-closing style that often suits this test. His form tailed off afterwards, but he goes well fresh and connections have likely had this as the long-term target.
Woodhay Wonder is another intriguing runner at a price. Proven over 6f on quick ground, she has strong course form and thrives in big fields. A slightly underwhelming return behind More Thunder might have knocked her off punters’ radars, but she’s handicapped to be competitive and could easily bounce back under the radar.
Jarraaf is well regarded and won twice over C&D last summer, finishing second to Apollo One in Group company here in October. He shaped well on seasonal return and has clear claims if building on that.
Completely Random and Aramram bring solid handicap form into the race, while Zoum Zoum has performed creditably at this track and could go well if finding cover from a high draw. Shartash, fitted with first-time cheekpieces, is an interesting dark horse for a yard that won this race with a 22/1 shot last year.
At even bigger odds, Get It, Holkham Bay and Germanic are all capable of outrunning their prices. The first named landed the Stewards’ Cup last summer and thrives in large-field handicaps. Holkham Bay has excellent recent form at Ascot and York but may be harshly treated now, while Germanic looks to be finding his stride again and shouldn’t be underestimated switching back to turf.
Verdict: A typically open Wokingham with a stack of horses holding live claims. ORAZIO looks primed for a big run off an attractive mark and could gain compensation for last year’s near miss. Woodhay Wonder has the tools to spring a surprise at a double-figure price, while Jarraaf and Get It are two more with strong course credentials. For those seeking each-way angles, Germanic and Shartash could add value to the exotics.
17:35
Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap)
The penultimate race on Saturday’s card sees a field of lightly raced, progressive three-year-olds go to post for this classy 1m2f handicap, a race that’s quickly gained a reputation for producing future Group-level performers. Seraph Gabriel is the red-hot favourite and looks solid, but this could be a race where value lies just beneath the surface.
Trained by Ralph Beckett and well drawn in stall 16, Seraph Gabriel brings a reliable and improving profile. He’s been narrowly denied in both of his last two starts and shapes as though the step up to 1m2f will bring out further improvement. He’s the rightful market leader and should be thereabouts.
But the one of most interest at the prices is ERNST BLOFELD. Since joining the Wathnan Racing team, he’s taken in a tough Newmarket Listed contest and then ran a creditable fourth in the competitive London Gold Cup, arguably the key piece of form in this race. Still learning his craft, he’s shown a likeable attitude and handles quick ground. The addition of cheekpieces could unlock more and with William Buick booked, he looks primed to outrun his odds.
French raider Best Secret impressed at Longchamp with a devastating late surge from deep, he could be anything on this first UK outing and it’s notable that Wathnan snapped him up during the week. El Burhan has been well-supported and his form is solid, while Quai De Bethune also caught the eye when running on late behind the London Gold Cup principals and may go closer this time from a handy mark.
Verdict: Seraph Gabriel brings strong credentials and deserves respect, but this could be the day that ERNST BLOFELD announces himself with a breakout performance. He’s still improving, holds smart handicap form and gets the benefit of Buick in the saddle. Each-way players should also give a second look to Best Secret and Quai De Bethune, both of whom are open to further progress.
18:10
Queen Alexandra Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
The curtain comes down on Royal Ascot 2025 with its longest and perhaps most demanding race, the historic Queen Alexandra Stakes, a grueling 2m5½f test where staying power and timing are everything. This year’s renewal centres on Sober, who’s been backed off the boards from 5/2 to odds-on and with good reason.
Now trained by Willie Mullins, Sober brings genuine class to the table. A dual Group 2 winner in France over extended staying trips and successful over hurdles on his Irish debut, he’s one of the few in the field with proven credentials at, or near this trip. Ryan Moore partners him again, and the Mullins-Moore axis has a strong record in this race. He’s the likeliest winner if staying the extra half-mile in this kind of field, even on ground that may be quicker than ideal.
But if there’s to be a spoiler, SAMUI is the one to do it. Gordon Elliott’s charge caught the eye when staying on stoutly into third in Tuesday’s Copper Horse Stakes (1m6f). That run suggested he’s in top form and ready for a bigger test of stamina, which he’ll get here. With strong form under both codes and previous experience over 3m when jumping, he’s more battle-hardened than most and looks a live each-way player, especially at a price.
Elsewhere, Trooper Bisdee continues to improve with age and distance and has the profile of a horse who could sneak into the frame. Wild Waves, on the other hand, has ability but must bounce back from a couple of lacklustre efforts and Dallas Star still has stamina to prove at this extreme trip.
Verdict: Sober is clearly the one they all have to beat; classy, progressive and trained by the right man for the job. But SAMUI, who ran a blinder earlier in the week, is no forlorn hope and could be the each-way angle in a race that often rewards those with battle-tested stamina. Trooper Bisdee appeals for minor honours in what promises to be a thrilling finale.
Royal Ascot Day Five Predictions
14:30 - Moments Of Joy (2/1)
15:05 - Rebel’s Romance (5/2)
15:40 - Inisherin (4/1)
16:20 - Comanche Brave (4/1)
17:00 - Orazio (14/1)
17:35 - Ernst Blofeld (10/1)
18:10 - Samui (11/2)
