Stephen Welch Racing Tips (29th October)
6 minutes Wednesday's horse racing tips come from the evening all-weather meeting at Kempton.
- 4:17 - Lieutenant Kije (4/1)
- 5:25 - Callahan (6/1) (E/W)
- 6:30 - Rey De La Batalla (10/1) (E/W)
- 8:00 - South Dakota Sioux (13/2) (E/W)
- 8:30 - Em Jay Kay (5/1)
4:17 Kempton (AW)
Try Unibet's Improved Acca Boosts Nursery Handicap
LIEUTENANT KIJE - 4/1
Lieutenant Kije shaped with real promise in three starts before entering handicap company, notably when finishing runner-up over this course and distance in August behind a rival now rated 95. That form has worked out superbly, with several behind him also improving markedly since and it suggests he could be well treated from an opening mark of 73. The gelding has been given a short break since, which should have done him the world of good and the return to Polytrack looks a major plus given his smooth-travelling style and proven course form. Hollie Doyle takes the ride, which is always a positive for a developing two-year-old with scope to progress.
Elan d’Or sets the standard on recent figures after a strong second at Newmarket last week and looks the main danger if transferring that turf form to the all-weather. Course winner Chapman’s Peak should also remain competitive off a 4lbs higher mark, while Dublin Bay could bounce back with cheekpieces applied. However, both face rivals with greater scope for improvement.
Verdict: With solid course form, a lenient-looking mark and the assistance of one of the best in the saddle, LIEUTENANT KIJE makes plenty of appeal to open his account at the fourth attempt and looks the one they all have to beat.
5:25 Kempton (AW)
Unibet 2000 Sponsored Races At Kempton EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div II)
CALLAHAN - 6/1
Callahan sets a clear standard in this novice fillies’ event and looks a solid each-way option at the prices. A 180,000gns breeze-up purchase, she showed plenty of promise when third on debut at Wolverhampton before only being denied by half a length in a Chester maiden 18 days later. Both runs suggest she’s learning quickly and that seven furlongs on the Polytrack will suit ideally. James Owen’s team has been in good recent form and the booking of Kieran Shoemark adds further confidence as the pair bid to make it third time lucky.
Snow Light and One Last Song appear the main dangers. The former represents Charlie Appleby and was well backed on debut at Newmarket in a strong race that has since worked out nicely, while One Last Song hails from a yard that has done well with two-year-old newcomers this term and commands market respect. Florida Suite could also take a step forward switching to the all-weather for William Haggas.
Verdict: CALLAHAN’s proven experience gives her a crucial edge against several once-raced or debuting rivals and with natural progression she looks more than capable of landing this before heading into handicaps.
6:30 Kempton (AW)
Unibet Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier)
REY DE LA BATALLA - 10/1
Rey De La Batalla has been a model of consistency on Polytrack and looks primed to strike again in this competitive London Mile Series Qualifier. All four of his career wins have come on the surface, including two over this course and distance and his recent second at Lingfield, when only narrowly denied after travelling powerfully, suggests he remains right at the top of his game. Simon Dow’s gelding has clearly thrived under these conditions and with Paddy Bradley retaining the ride from a winnable mark, he should be able to offset a slightly awkward draw and launch another bold bid.
Philanthropist and Cogitate head the market and command respect, but both have minor question marks to answer. Philanthropist must prove his stamina at the trip having done his best work over shorter, while Cogitate remains winless on the all-weather despite several solid efforts. Brave Emperor has strong back-form on this surface and looks the most interesting of the rest if rediscovering his old sparkle back at Kempton.
Verdict: REY DE LA BATALLA’s proven record over track and trip gives him the edge in a tight race and with conditions firmly in his favour, he looks a confident selection.
8:00 Kempton (AW)
'He 'Will' Nag No More' Handicap
SOUTH DAKOTA SIOUX - 13/2
South Dakota Sioux has been knocking on the door in recent starts and looks ready to return to winning ways under ideal conditions. He produced his best run for some time when fourth at Lingfield last month, travelling well before keeping on steadily behind a trio of in-form rivals. That performance confirmed he remains competitive off his current mark of 59 and with his record showing he handles Polytrack particularly well, this looks a good opportunity to strike. George Wood knows him inside out and the return to seven furlongs is a further plus.
Triggered and Penelope Valentine are obvious threats. The former has been running consistently all year and drops back to his optimum trip after finishing second over a mile, while the latter remains in form but faces another wide draw which could make life tricky. Luminous Warrior also warrants respect after showing potential in stronger company earlier in the season, though he still has to prove himself for new connections.
Verdict: A reliable performer at this level, SOUTH DAKOTA SIOUX looks attractively treated and has been shaping as if his turn is near. With everything in his favour tonight, he’s fancied to capitalise and add another Kempton success to his record.
8:30 Kempton (AW)
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EM JAY KAY - 5/1
Em Jay Kay appeals as a lively contender at a big price and looks primed for a big run back at his favoured trip. A dual all-weather winner, he shaped well on his return from a six-month absence when beaten under four lengths at Yarmouth earlier this month; a run that should have blown away the cobwebs. Now 2lbs lower than for his last success and reunited with Grace McEntee, who knows him well, he’s weighted to strike if building on that recent effort. The Polytrack surface holds no fears and a return to six furlongs should play perfectly to his strengths.
The Real McKay and Wallop are obvious dangers, both boasting solid C&D records and recent form to recommend them, while Smasher cannot be dismissed having already won twice over course and distance this year. Apple Of My Eye is another who could take a step forward, dropping back in trip, but her overall profile still looks less convincing than Em Jay Kay’s.
Verdict: With a fitness-boosting run now under his belt and his handicap mark slipping to a tempting level, EM JAY KAY looks ready to recapture his best form and can go close in a race that should be run to suit.
